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Thematic Research Project — Kotak Alternate Asset Managers Ltd · Project window: 5 March – 15 April
Kotak's brief asked for a thematic EM research framework that could convert macro signals into time-sensitive, risk-calibrated investment positioning for a trading-oriented allocator. The gap they highlighted: too much macro commentary, too little translation into trade-level conviction.
Our response was to build that translation layer end-to-end — from geopolitical inputs all the way down to stock pitches with scenario-weighted valuations.
Rather than chasing a generic India theme (rate cycles, capex, credit expansion), we anchored the work in something more urgent and asymmetric: four active geopolitical conflicts simultaneously pricing risk into commodities, freight, and capital flows that India is structurally exposed to.
The four conflicts mapped:
Why this works as a theme: India imports ~85% of its crude, runs a structural CAD, and has an INR that is highly oil-elastic. Conflict premia transmit fast and asymmetrically across sectors.
Phase 1 — Conflict Input Layer: Mapped each conflict to the specific Indian macro transmission channels it touches: Brent, LNG, freight rates, fertilizer prices, defense procurement, rare earth availability.
Phase 2 — Macro Quantification: Attached empirically sourced coefficients to every transmission channel, not modeled estimates. For example: every $10/bbl in Brent → ~30 bps on CPI, ~25 bps on CAD/GDP, INR pressure of ~40–60 paise. OMC under-recovery sensitivity, GRM impact, and fiscal slippage paths were fully modeled. Sources: IMF Article IV 2024, RBI Monetary Policy Reports, ICRA, Canara Bank, PPAC.
Phase 3 — Sector & Earnings Sensitivity Scorecard: Ranked five sectors on growth sensitivity, margin risk, leverage exposure, and demand cyclicality:
Phase 4 — Stock-Level Pitches: Full institutional pitches with composite scorecards, three-scenario probability-weighted valuations, EBITDA waterfall stress tests, and risk frameworks.
| Sector | Names Covered | Top Conviction |
|---|---|---|
| Energy — Upstream | ONGC, Oil India | ONGC ✓ |
| Energy — OMC | BPCL | BPCL ✓ |
| Energy — Gas | GAIL | GAIL ✓ |
| Energy — Integrated | RIL | — |
| Defense | HAL, Solar Industries | — |
| FMCG | HUL, Emami | — |
| Logistics | Blue Dart, Mahindra Logistics | — |
| Chemicals | Navin Fluorine, Deepak Nitrite | — |
Top three convictions: BPCL, ONGC, GAIL — chosen on valuation dislocation combined with asymmetric conflict-channel exposure. Each pitch carries a composite scorecard (EBITDA channel, FCF authenticity, ROCE–WACC spread, NAV cross-check), Bear/Base/Bull probability-weighted target prices, a waterfall EBITDA stress test against the conflict channels, and a risk register.